Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
